Scenario technique
Scenario technique is a qualitative and long-term predictive analysis tool which is used within planning processes. It deals with the development and analysis of possible future scenarios. This means that it maps future developments of environmental situations (scenarios) in different basic conditions as alternative pictures of the future. Scenarios represent all “possible futures” in this respect.
Scenario technique means that firstly there are identified all most important determining factors. Subsequently, only a limited number of scenarios are considered; this means to focus on the analysis of extreme scenarios (e.g. positive extreme scenario, negative extreme scenario, trend scenario) or especially relevant or typical scenarios.
Most preferred application areas of scenario technique are:
- Preparation of decisions,
- Orientation regarding future developments,
- Strategy development and review.
The scenario planning technique is divided into the following phases:
- Analysis of tasks and problems - determining and describing the analysis object; determining influencing factors
- Analysis of influence - analysing mutual influence of factors,
- Trend projection and determination of scenarios - determining different possibilities for development and possible value of single factors, development of scenarios by combining different factor values, bundling of alternatives and limitation to selected scenarios or bundles of alternatives,
- Assessment and interpretation - further analysis of selected scenarios, definition of actions for each scenario.
See also:
Analysis
